Episode: 2657
Title: HPR2657: Why we are all going to shit in 30 years due to computers
Source: https://hub.hackerpublicradio.org/ccdn.php?filename=/eps/hpr2657/hpr2657.mp3
Transcribed: 2025-10-19 07:07:09

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This is HBR episode 2657 entitled, why we are all going to shit in 30 years new to computers.
It is hosted by your own pattern and in about 26 minutes long and carrying an explicit flag.
The summary is some thoughts about the increasing impact of automation.
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Hello there, this is Jerome Baton.
This is an English podcast.
I will try to do this in English.
Which is not my mother tongue.
Apologies to start with.
First of all, I really would like to thank
dear friend of mine, Bart.
Upon the first request, I told him about my pretty blunt remarks about the original HBR tune.
He graciously and immediately came up with a few rearrangements of the same tune.
One of those rearrangements I have used in the intro part now.
Thank you so much, Bart. You did a terrific job.
He was on a roll and made three new variations.
You can find them on the theme page of HBR.
Give it a try.
He is pretty modest in a way.
He uses me as a communication proxy.
If you've got any positive remarks about the new tunes,
just drop me a line and I'll make sure that he gets the information.
Anyway, this is my second podcast I'm doing.
I like to do the first one.
If you haven't heard it, give it a try.
It's on HBR. It's called running your mainframe on Linux for fun or profit.
It even got a mention on Ubuntu podcasts.
I thought, well, let's give it another try.
We go to the second podcast.
This one is also...
It's content based on a lecture that I gave two years ago.
Without further ado, let's just go ahead.
The title is why we are all going to shit in 30 years due to computers.
So, emphasis is on the two and not on the shit part.
Probably, if you're all alive, that's basic, bodily function will still work as advertised.
This is more of where are we now and where are we going to be in 30 years due to computers.
First, who am I? My name is Jerome Betten.
Like I said, I've been in IT since I was 15.
I like to innovate stuff with software and computers.
These days, I'm self-employed and I call myself an IT solutionist.
As in, you have got problems and I will try to solve them.
So, that makes me a solutionist.
Actually, I hate the burst word, cultural of IT,
where they try to make things sound as complex as possible to be able to sell something to a client.
Just try to explain what you're doing in simple laymen terms.
So, the other one understands what you're doing as well.
There's no need to obfuscate, in my opinion, anyway.
So, first, this part of the podcast has modesty mode off.
So, next part will be very unmodest.
I don't know, but at least modesty won't be the way to subscribe it.
I predicted the rise of open-source Linux in 2001.
I gave many lectures in the Netherlands.
I wrote books about them on every stage where people would want to have me.
I stood at center stage and said Linux in open-source is going to be big.
And I did that in 2001.
Just saying, I was there, I did that.
No false predictions at that point.
I also predicted the law on open standards.
The Dutch law on open standards in 2001.
And why any government should mandate by law the use of open standards in communication
from the government to external parties.
I predicted that, and it's been a long while, but it's almost in law in the Netherlands at least.
So, having said that, I will now predict the future.
And this is where the modesty mode goes on again.
So, let's start with a few examples.
You probably think that a Tesla car is pretty cool.
Or you think that those running around Uber cars or Google cars are pretty cool.
I mean, they drive all by themselves.
Yeah, and in a way, I mean Tesla.
I think Tesla looks more cool than any other car.
But that's just me.
But this autonomous driving, yeah, it's cool.
You know, you sit back, you read the paper at some point in time, or you watch a movie.
If there's a traffic jam, who cares?
You're just relaxing.
And at some point you'll end up at your destination.
Pretty cool.
But guess what?
The Volvo is just released a truck.
It's a semi.
It's a truck where that's electronically driven.
It's electronic by itself.
Everything about this is electronics.
And it drives autonomously.
And that's all good and well, except for the fact that it doesn't use a truck driver anymore.
Now, one unemployed truck driver is one thing.
But to be able to eliminate the whole group of people who do truck driving for a living
is an entirely different matter.
In the Netherlands, that would be that 56,000 Dutch truck drivers would get out of a job,
just simply because the thing drives autonomously.
And not only that, where a normal truck driver can work eight hours a day,
an anonymous truck can work 24 hours a day.
So that gives him a factor of three more efficiency than any Dutch,
or any other human could do.
So example number two.
You're probably like video games.
Video games, Xbox, Nintendo Wii, the PlayStation, whatever.
Yeah.
That's all fun.
But the latest robot design is also based in a way in gamification.
You just pick up the arms of the robot.
And you place it where you want it to be.
And then you tell him where he needs to pick something up.
And then you move that arm to the position that he needs to move something to.
And then you let go.
So learning doesn't involve programming anymore.
It's just pick up the arm of the robot.
Place it on one position, place it on the other position.
And that's it.
And there's even a healthcare robot that helps people with mental disabilities.
To interact with them, to talk with them so they don't feel lonely.
And believe me, I know a couple of mental people with mental disabilities.
They like to talk, they like to engage.
And if that would be something that would resemble a human,
I mean, that it could pass a Turing test.
Then that would be fine.
The effect would be the healthcare professionals doing that would get reduced.
Or machine workers would get reduced simply because a robot can do something 24 hours a day instead of human.
Other example, you've probably used barcode before.
Your QR codes, you put it on a t-shirt, containing a URL to something,
or your scanner barcode in the supermarket when you buy stuff with a hand scanner.
Well, guess what? Amazon already has a shop that does away with all that.
It simply follows you.
When you go into the stores, when you go into the store, you swipe your telephone.
So it knows your identity.
And then with video cameras, it tracks your every move.
So when you pick something from the grocery stand, it logs that.
And if you put it back, it will log that as well.
And so it will keep track of your bill.
And you simply leave when you're done.
There's no lines. There's no checkout.
The effect of this will be, there's no more need for cash register workers.
And they get unemployed.
So, a penny for your thoughts.
You'll probably think, ah, those are low skilled jobs.
I'm safe. I've got a real education.
Okay. Example number four.
You studied for years to become a doctor, like my eldest daughter did.
She's now, I'm pretty proud actually.
She's just started as being a doctor.
And she wants to work in emergency care facilities.
It's pretty cool.
But anyway, back to the story.
Well, guess what? IBM has this system that's called Watson.
That is better at diagnosing cancer than human doctors.
So after you've done your medical education for, I don't know, six years.
And you become a radiologist for another, with a study for another years.
And after that, you're able to diagnose cancer or whatever.
Simply by looking at an X-ray or an MRI scan.
Watson can do that.
And he can do it better.
And he can do it cheaper.
And it can do it 24 hours a day.
So, there you go.
Effect.
Less need for educated and trained radiologists.
Probably for the emergency room.
There's still a job there.
But radiologist.
No, not so much.
And again, depending for your thoughts, you say, oh, sure.
But I'm still safe.
I have a creative job.
Well, okay.
Suppose you were in the creative movie business.
IBM Watson was challenged to make a trailer for the movie Morgan.
And it created one simply by somebody writing software.
I say, listen, this is the build-up of tension I want.
Pick some scenes out of the movie that contain this kind of tension
and put them next to each other and place a nice soundtrack underneath.
And it did that.
So, there you go.
Or, example, number six, you're written out of the story.
The robots are capable of making the news.
About 80% of all American sports news is currently auto-generated.
It's very simple.
You pick a game.
You know the score of the game or the results.
You know who made the goal or whatever.
And you simply mention the name.
You put a reference to some historic fact.
Like, oh, this is Bobby.
He scored for so many minutes.
And it's nice because he recently recovered from something or in history.
He did some, I don't know, out of the last 10 games he scored, whatever.
The point is, there's just less need for creative workers.
And, yeah, that could be a problem.
I mean, especially when you are a creative worker.
If you look at world logistics, there is...
Look at what a flashlight, for example.
The flashlight costs in your own hometown.
And then look up what the same thing costs in Onali Baba in China.
And I know this government sponsored by China and the Philo-Container
and they sent it to the other part of the world.
And that's just local postage added.
But the world...
You could think that you are still in your own little village.
But it just doesn't work that way.
The world in and all by itself is a local village.
Because, well, you know, Internet.
You can contact and talk and whatever to have.
Everybody, anywhere.
No problems.
If you're not scared yet, well, personally, I think you should be.
Things are changing.
And why is this happening?
Well, the thing is, there is a bug in capitalistic system.
And we've been living in a capitalistic world.
And I think it's one of the best world types that's out there.
But there is a bug in it.
And it's called competition.
And we live in a world with continuous increasing productivity.
And at the same time, decreasing margins.
And there are several excellent books on this topic that I would like to suggest for your reading.
The one that got me started is the one by Federico Pistono.
And it's called robots will steal your job.
But that's okay.
How to survive the economic collapse and be happy.
So you think there is a way out of this.
Anyway, the one that is actually a bestseller is by Jeremy Rifkin.
And if you haven't heard of him, well, you should.
He's written several excellent books.
And the one that I'm talking about now is called the zero marginal cost society.
And it's very easy to read.
So the internet of things, the collapse, sorry, the collaborative comments and the eclipse of capitalism.
Because well, well, this we know it is come to an end.
The other one.
And this one is difficult.
It's a really tough cookie.
It's written by a guy called Paul Mason.
And his book is called post capitalism.
That's it.
Post capitalism.
A guy to our future.
It's complex.
It's hard to read.
At the same time, it's the best book I've ever read in my life.
And please me, I've read several.
If you think, well, give me another book.
Oh, yeah, sure.
Martin Ford, the rise of the robotics, technology and the threat of mass unemployment.
And that's where the crux is.
There's nothing wrong with technology.
But there's something wrong with the threat of mass unemployment.
For instance, the productivity of society as a whole has been increasing since World War II.
And at the moment is that approximately 270% productivity compared to the productivity in 1945.
So we've been working well.
We've been gained in efficiency in new production methods.
That's all very nice and dandy.
At the same time, there's this other thing that's troubling me.
And well, at one end, we see a gradual increase in productivity throughout all these decades.
In 1975, approximately 1975, the hourly compensation stagnated.
And it's been at approximately the same level ever since.
So we're all getting better at producing stuff, but hourly compensation did not increase since the 70s.
The other thing is the distribution of wealth in our society.
If you look at the top 1% of people, so the people, the 100% of society that has the highest income, the highest wealth.
The top 1% have seen their share of global wealth increasing in the last decade from 44% to approximately 50%.
At the same time, of course, when they win, somebody loses and that's the other 99%.
And well, believe it or not, I'm part of that 99%.
I bother about that.
It's decreased from 55% to 50%, actually 56%, but who's counting?
And there is an increased sense that if you are an investor, your money is worth more than if you spend your money in a hospital.
In a hospital or a shop or anyway, spend your money.
So if robots and robotization and computation take our way, jobs, because we are getting very good and being very efficient, what will happen to everybody?
Well, I guess it's mass unemployment. And what will happen if almost everyone is unemployed?
Well, I don't know. I'm not a psychic. I don't know. You tell me.
Will it be a survival of the fittest?
So the people who don't have a job will just starve until there are enough people left to fill the jobs available.
Well, Darwin's law is not so much survival of the fittest, but in his words, it's not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.
So can we handle the change? And the change will come.
And there are some other changes on our way. One, for instance, there is a very nice book by Elizabeth Colbert called The Sixth Extinction.
And it talks about Earth-growing extinction crisis, because it's a man-made disaster.
Since the start of the disaster revolution, we see a decrease of biodiversity in the world.
We're just slaughtering nature. And that's not a challenge. Do we want to keep on doing that?
That would be like shooting in your own foot.
Let's add another problem to that. And that's the one about the distribution of ages in society.
At the moment, I love people working to pay for the retirement of the people who have been retired. It's a one-one situation.
Everything that you pay now will be spent now to the people who have retired.
But the bulk of the people is currently working. Well, in a few years, the bulk of the people will be retired, and the people working is a lot smaller.
So they need to come up with the pension, and either they have a very high tax rate, which is not fair, or the pension just decrease.
Think about it.
And there's, of course, the big elephant in the room, global warming.
Well, if you are still by now in denial, then, well, there's no hope for you.
A lot of, a lot of me won't change anything because you're probably too dumb.
Anyway, and just crawl under a rock and stay there until you're boiled or cooked or whatever.
And let the people with a few brain cells like me try to gather to solve this.
So possible solutions for all this crisis talk. Well, there's politicians.
And I don't know what is in your country, but in my country, 70% of the people do not trust politicians.
And that's that's saying something. So you elect people that you do not trust on average.
Weird. In a way.
Okay. Another option. Your deity.
Well, whatever religion that you fancy, will he or she, I don't know, or it, solve these problems?
Or will you?
Let's go back in the Netherlands. And that's why I'm located. So that's why I have the statistics.
We're a small country. We've got some 17 million people living and breathing here.
From all ages, all colors, all ethnic, ethnicities, whatever. 70 million.
So of those 70 million, a mere 300,000, and it's exaggerating because it's 28,851.
A party members of any political party. So that's 2% of the population.
So 2% of the population is party member. All of those party members, only a quarter, 25% is active.
So they do stuff. They manage the local website. They think about stuff.
They write stuff. They discuss about stuff. Whatever. They do political stuff. Right?
So if you take 25% of those 300,000, give or take, you get approximately 70,000 people who are governing the country of 70 million.
And at the same time, most of those guys have almost zero IT knowledge.
And that's a problem on its own. But that's probably something for another podcast.
Anyway, so in a way, when I did this keynote a couple of years ago, I said, this is a call to arms.
It is a call to arms. It's not to fight. I mean, I'm a peaceful, loving guy.
So it's not revolution with fighting, but it's get involved.
Discuss with people, decide with people and act with people.
And that's the only way to make a difference.
And in the end, the future is whatever you make it. So make it a good one.
That's it. That was my second podcast. That was the story I wanted to tell.
Dearly, if you have any feedback, comment, whatever, please let me know.
Just put a comment on this website or drop me an email or tweet me something, whatever.
If you want to harass me, just move along. I'm not interested.
If you want to discuss your more than welcome, if you think I can help, just let me know.
And I'll try to do that. And think about these things.
Well, I hope you were thinking about what I was telling them to you.
Or you were just listening to them in your car while you were stuck in the traffic jam.
And well, then I hope you had a nice time. Okay.
So talk to you later and see you later, whatever.
Till my next podcast. Bye-bye.
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