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<h3>
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Counter Point
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</h3>
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<p>
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This show is a counter point to: <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/eps.php?id=3649">hpr3649 :: Linux Inlaws S01E61: 20 years in review</a>
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</p>
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<hr />
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<h2 id="back-to-the-future">Back to the Future</h2>
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<p>In tomorrow's show, the Linux Inlaws travel back in time to bring to us reports from the future.</p>
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<p>Unfortunately they took a left turn down the wrong leg of the <a href="https://wiki.lspace.org/Trousers_of_Time">Trousers of Time</a> and ended up making some wrong assumptions about how popular they are.</p>
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<p>Although the entire show is a spoof based around their meteoric rise to fame and fortune, it's the segment <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/local/hpr3649.ogg#t=386">06:31 to 10:56</a> that I want to discuss.</p>
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<p>It more or less comes down to the following quote.</p>
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<p><em> "Chris: If we take a look at Archive.org. For the last one year and a half we clock in on average between 1,500 and 2,500 listeners.<br /> Given the fact that we have launched this podcast short of 2 and a half years ago, that's quite amazing." </em></p>
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<p>And then later</p>
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<p><em> "Chris: On average we are listened to by anything between 5,000 and 10,000 people per episode. Given the fact that as I said, quite a few people syndicate us.<br /> Martin: Are you sure you got the decimal point in the right place<br /> Chris: Maybe I'm off by a magnitude so maybe 50,000 to 100,000" </em></p>
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<p>So the logic employed here is. Take downloads on one site. Multiply that by the number of syndicated sites. And that equals the total downloads.</p>
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<p>I think we can do a lot better than a mere 100K!</p>
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<p>First search the logs on Hacker Public Radio for a sample episode "hpr3609 :: Linux Inlaws S01E57: Operating System Level Virtualisation and Martin's Faith"</p>
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<pre><code>$ grep -i 3609 *.log | wc -l
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8421</code></pre>
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<p>Now a quick <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=Linux%20Inlaws%20podcast">Google Search for the Linux Outlaws</a> shows us that there <em>About 564000 results (0,54 seconds)</em>.</p>
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<p>So if you multiply the number of hits to HPR, by the number of results from Google you arrive at a Estimated Listenership of 4,749,444,000.</p>
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<p>Wow. Five billion. Now that is impressive. We can go even further, because that was just for one show.</p>
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<p>They have already released 57 episodes, so their listenership has to be 57 times greater.</p>
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<p>Drum roll please.</p>
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<p>We can say that logically the Linux Inlaws Show has had a total of 270,718,308,000.</p>
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<p>Let's round that up to 271 Billion.</p>
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<p>Now that's impressive, given the fact that <a href="https://www.worldatlas.com/feature/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth.html">the number of people that have ever lived on the earth is only 108 Billion</a>.</p>
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<p>All messing aside. There is something wrong with my logic, but is there also something wrong with their logic?</p>
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<h2 id="separating-the-wheat-from-the-chaff">Separating the wheat from the chaff</h2>
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<p>When I searched through the Hacker Public Radio logs earlier it returned 8421 hits, but the Internet Archive shows that that show only got 1493 downloads.</p>
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<p>And you guessed it, our logs contain a lot more than just the download records.</p>
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<p>We need to limit ourselves to counting just the media files, which eliminates 3713 log lines.</p>
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<p>Of which:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>2169 hits were where 3 6 0 9 appears in the number of bytes downloaded.<br /> For example "5636096 bytes" log line contains the number 3 6 0 9</li>
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<li>1107 hits were links to the episode show note page.</li>
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<li>111 hits were to an unrelated page on the mail list archive.</li>
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<li>42 hits were the version number of Safari.</li>
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<li>154 hits were the version number of Chrome.</li>
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<li>22 hits were web crawlers.</li>
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<li>108 hits were attacks.</li>
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</ul>
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<p>Now looking just at the 4708 media file hits.</p>
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<ul>
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<li>There were 21 bots that must be eliminated.</li>
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<li>544 where the HEAD method is used.<br /> The HEAD method is identical to the GET method except that the server must not return a message-body in the response.<br /> So clients using this are just checking if the file has changed or not.<br /></li>
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<li>The rest are duplicate IP addresses.</li>
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</ul>
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<p>So that leaves just 1079</p>
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<p>What! That is 414 less than what we are saying was downloaded.</p>
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<p>Well it turns out people download the same episode several times on different days. So when you put those back you get to 1493.</p>
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<p>But that begs the question. Should you count unique hits on a particular day, or unique hits in general?</p>
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<p>On the other hand should you include all the hits from a single IP address.</p>
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<p>It could be a company firewall where multiple people are downloading the same show.</p>
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<p>I hope you see that this is not an exact science.</p>
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<p>And at the end of the day, the simple fact is that just because someone downloads a show, does not mean that they actually listened to it.</p>
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<h2 id="stats-i-hate-them.-we-love-them.">Stats! I hate them. We love them.</h2>
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<p>They also say that Hacker Public Radio doesn't like stats, well that's also wrong.</p>
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<p>It's just me that doesn't like them.</p>
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<p>And that's because generating them is a waste of time and there is no "true" figure you can ever arrive at.</p>
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<p>Producing the figures for this show took two weeks of my free time, but this at least produces a show, so I'm happy to do it.</p>
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<p>In the process I learned two tips about LibreOffice Calc that I'll share with you.</p>
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<p>However, every time it's discussed on the mail list, people really love statistics and want Hacker Public Radio to have them.</p>
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<p>I put off doing it for so long that the problem fixed itself.</p>
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<p>Now that we are hosting the main feed on the Internet Archive, we get statistics for free.</p>
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<p>But can we trust the figures from the Internet Archive?</p>
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<p>Most of the time, yes.</p>
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<p>And we can confirm this because we can compare it to the logs on Hacker Public Radio.</p>
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<p><a href="https://archive.org/services/docs/api/views.html">The Internet Archive Views work like this</a>:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>Each item has an view counter.</li>
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<li>The view counter is increased by one when a user engages with the media in an item.</li>
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<li>A user can only increase the view count of a particular item once per day.</li>
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<li>If a user views and/or downloads from an item multiple times on the same day that user's activity is only counted as one view on that item.</li>
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</ul>
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<p>How do we account for the differences between it and Hacker Public Radio?</p>
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<p>Hacker Public Radio differs slightly in that we count GETS for shows, eliminating bots and crawlers.</p>
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<p>For the sample episode Linux Inlaws Season 1 Episode 57, the Internet Archive reported 1269 downloads, while Hacker Public Radio reported 1493.</p>
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<p>That is a difference of 224, but that's also OK.</p>
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<p>To explain some of the differences, let's explain what is actually happening.</p>
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<p>When an episode is published on Hacker Public Radio it is added to the future RSS feed.</p>
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<p>That feed only ever points to media hosted locally on the Hacker Public Radio server, which only has a at most 50 subscribers.</p>
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<p>On the other hand, the main feed is fed (now at least) exclusively from the Internet Archive.</p>
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<p>Additionally, shows played on The internet Archive site will only be counted there.</p>
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<p>And shows played on the Hacker Public Radio site will only be counted on Hacker Public Radio.</p>
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<p>So there will always be differences between the download stats on both sites.</p>
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<p>But they are close enough for jazz.</p>
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<p>So their statement "clock in on average between 1,500 and 2,500 listeners" is a smidgen of an exaggeration. The correct figures are 1,269 and 2,240.</p>
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<h2 id="syndication">Syndication</h2>
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<p>Where they go astray is when they use that number and then guesstimate that their listenership is between 5 and 10 thousand listeners per episode.</p>
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<p>They feel justified in using that number, and I quote "Given the fact that ... quite a few people syndicate us."</p>
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<p>That's a old concept so let's explain the term <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_syndication">web syndication</a>.</p>
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<p><em>From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.</em><br /> "Web syndication is a form of syndication in which content is made available from one website to other sites."</p>
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<p>Think of it as oldskool Content Delivery Networks(CDN), or content caching.</p>
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<p>This is how it would work in theory.</p>
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<p>When the first client makes a request, the media would be retrieved from Hacker Public Radio.</p>
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<p>Instead of just having the media pass through to the client, the remote site would keep a copy locally.</p>
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<p>That way all other requests for that file would be served from the local copy on the syndication website.</p>
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<p>Anyone viewing the second or later views of the media from their site would not be registered in our logs.</p>
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<p>Therefore anything played there would not be counted in the Internet Archive Stats.</p>
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<p>I was immediately suspicious when I heard this, not just because of the legal issues with hosting random media, but because of the bandwidth costs involved.</p>
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<p>Fun fact. No. That is not what's happening.</p>
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<p>Fortunately most of the popular web browsers have developer tools that let you confirm this by examining what's happening on the network.</p>
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<p>Go to the sites you're interested in and then press and hold, control and shift, and then press I. Next click the network tab.</p>
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<p>When you play on the podcast, you see exactly what requests are sent to what server and what their responses are.</p>
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<p>If we narrow the Google search from earlier using quotes, <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Linux+Inlaws%22+podcast">"Linux Inlaws" podcast</a>, then a more manageable 1,810 results are returned.</p>
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<p>So I limited myself to a list of the sites that have a play button.</p>
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<h3 id="results-with-feed-used">Results with feed used</h3>
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<p>Sorted in return order:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>Podchaser - Linux Inlaws RSS Feed</li>
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<li>PlayerFM - Linux Inlaws RSS Feed</li>
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<li>Youtube - Linux Inlaws RSS Feed</li>
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<li>Apple Podcasts - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>Podcast Addict - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>GetPodcast.com - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>archive.org - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>listennotes.com - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>Spotify - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>gPodder.net - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>Digital Podcasts - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>Podcast.de - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>hobby public radio - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>podyssey.fm - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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<li>podtail.com - Hacker Public Radio Feed</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 id="not-returned-but-checked">Not returned but checked</h3>
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<ul>
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<li>Google Podcasts</li>
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<li>iheart Radio</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 id="example-from-apple-podcast">Example from Apple Podcast</h3>
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<p><a href="02-apple.png"><img src="thumb-02-apple.png" alt="apple podcast" /></a></p>
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<p>After checking them all it was as I suspected, the media is not hosted on those sites at all.</p>
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<p>In all but one case, the request is first sent to Hacker Public Radio.</p>
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<p>We redirect them to the Internet Archive.</p>
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<p>It is the Internet Archive that hosts the media.</p>
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<p>So these sites are not syndicating the content at all, they are just syndicating the RSS feed.</p>
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<p>One site not shown here is Spotify, not because they are hosting the media, but because they are obfuscating it. We're able to confirm this by checking the Hacker Public Radio website logs. There we see clients with the Spotify user-agent arriving from different IP Addresses requesting the same show. Were this cached we would only ever see one request.</p>
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<p>The only case of syndication is where the media has to be transformed to Video, as is the case with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1j_uaAbB3magzPs4Z0Y-mg">The Linux Inlaws Unofficial Channel</a> on YouTube.</p>
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<p>The channel has 10 subscribers in total, and has 606 views.</p>
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<p><a href="01-youtube.png"><img src="thumb-01-youtube.png" alt="youtube" /></a></p>
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<p>Given they released 57 episodes, about 10 additional downloads would seem correct.</p>
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<p>But don't forget to subtract one from the Hacker Public Radio Site, as the content was downloaded in the first place to convert it to video.</p>
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<p>Therefore the claim of between 5 thousand and 10 thousand listeners per episode is not correct, simply because there is no syndication going on to speak of.</p>
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<h2 id="elephant-in-the-room">Elephant in the Room</h2>
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<p>Now we need to address the Elephant in the Room.</p>
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<p><em> "Chris: If we take a look at Archive.org. For the last one year and a half we clock in on average between 1,500 and 2,500 listeners.<br /> Given the fact that we have launched this podcast short of 2 and a half years ago, that's quite amazing." </em></p>
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<p>A figure of 1278 total downloads for the latest show, is an amazing achievement.</p>
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<p>One that any podcast in the Linux space would be proud to have.</p>
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<p>It's even more amazing that they managed to garner 2190 downloads for their first show, because it's very difficult for new shows to get noticed.</p>
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<p>It takes a long time to build an audience, as can be seen with the <a href="https://grumpy-old-coders.org">Grumpy Old Coders</a>.</p>
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<p>During their interview in episode <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/local/hpr3288.ogg#t=3505">hpr3288 :: Linux Inlaws S01E25: The Grumpy Old Coders</a>, they reported their download figures as "about 200 listeners across all the episodes", which they agreed was correct for a niche podcast of their type.</p>
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<p>Exposure is something that new podcasts struggle to achieve, which is why we often release a sample episode of new podcasts on Hacker Public Radio under our "Podcast recommendations" series.</p>
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<p>Feedback has often been positive about the bump in numbers that exposure on the Hacker Public Radio podcast provides.</p>
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<p>Having <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/local/hpr3288.ogg#t=3310">listened back to that episode again</a>, it is clear that the guests from the <a href="https://grumpy-old-coders.org">Grumpy Old Coders</a>, believe that Hacker Public Radio is a Podcast Hosting Platform. One that operates like Spotify, Apple Podcast or Google Podcasts, where each show has to build their own audience.</p>
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<p>Neither Chris nor Martin explain that Hacker Public Radio is not a Podcast Hosting Platform, but is a podcast in and of itself. One where there is a fixed RSS feed but a rotating team of volunteer hosts.</p>
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<p>The Linux Inlaws may well believe that Hacker Public Radio is a Podcast Hosting Platform, and that the traffic is being driven by the <a href="https://linuxInlaws.eu/inlaws_rss.xml">Linux Inlaws RSS feed</a> on their own website.</p>
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<h2 id="show-me-the-stats">Show me the stats</h2>
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<p>So are the listeners to the Linux Inlaws just Linux Inlaws listeners, or are they actually Hacker Public Radio listeners?</p>
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<p>Let's compare the download numbers for Linux Inlaws episodes, to the download numbers of other Hacker Public Radio episode that were released in the previous two weeks.</p>
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<p>Even though their first episode may have picked up 2190 downloads in total since release, on release day it was downloaded 998 times.</p>
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<p>This is the release day download numbers for the other Hacker Public Radio shows in the two previous weeks, of when their first and most recent show were released.</p>
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<h3 id="first-day-of-release-numbers">First day of release numbers</h3>
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<pre>
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hpr3009 2020-02-13 998
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hpr3008 2020-02-12 910
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hpr3007 2020-02-11 940
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hpr3006 2020-02-10 947
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hpr3005 2020-02-07 968
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hpr3004 2020-02-06 971
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hpr3003 2020-02-05 914
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hpr3002 2020-02-04 919
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hpr3001 2020-02-03 913
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hpr3609 2022-06-02 753
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hpr3608 2022-06-01 726
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hpr3607 2022-05-31 722
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hpr3606 2022-05-30 732
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hpr3605 2022-05-27 774
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hpr3604 2022-05-26 748
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hpr3603 2022-05-25 756
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hpr3602 2022-05-24 766
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hpr3601 2022-05-23 753
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</pre>
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<p>The first day of release number for their first show, has about 56 more downloads than the other Hacker Public Radio shows released the same week.</p>
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<p>Additional downloads are common enough when we get a new host.</p>
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<p>The first day of release number for their latest show, is about 5 downloads above average for the other Hacker Public Radio shows released the same week.</p>
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<p>The following graph shows a plot of all Hacker Public Radio downloads, with the Linux Inlaws shows highlighted.</p>
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<p><a href="10-actual_hpr_downloads.png"><img src="thumb-10-actual_hpr_downloads.png" alt="actual_hpr_downloads" /></a></p>
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<p>Every one of those dots is a download that is <strong>not without cost</strong>, but is provided <strong>entirely free of charge</strong> to us by our kind hosting Provider <a href="https://anhonesthost.com/hosting/shared-hosting">AnHonestHost.com</a> and the volunteer project <a href="https://archive.org/donate/">the Internet Archive</a>. Both of which donates terabytes of storage and data transfer to us for free.</p>
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<p>You can say that their shows are popular, but not more so than other shows in the period.</p>
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<p>What else can you derive from the chart?</p>
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<p>Well that if you want to plot Count of something against Date in LibreOffice then you should make sure that the Dates are recognised as Dates, and that you use a Scatter Plot.</p>
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<p>And thanks to <a href="https://ask.libreoffice.org/t/solved-how-to-group-by-month-and-year/42633/4">aw35waf5a</a> you can group data by year and month as follows:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>Create the Pivot Table (Data → Pivot Table → Insert or Edit) with the date column in the Row fields.</li>
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<li>Click into any cell in the Pivot Table containing a date (usually the first column)</li>
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<li>Go to Data → Group and Outline → Group</li>
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<li>Then in the section Group by select Intervals and check the labels Months and Years</li>
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</ul>
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<h2 id="accurate-download-numbers">Accurate Download Numbers</h2>
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<p>We can actually accurately determine which downloads derive from the Linux Inlaws brand, and those from the Hacker Public Radio community.</p>
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<p>This is due to the fact that the <a href="https://linuxInlaws.eu/inlaws_rss.xml">Linux Inlaws RSS feed</a>, includes shows soon after they become available on the Internet Archive.</p>
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<p>While on Hacker Public Radio, we release shows per schedule. As explained earlier, the main <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/advanced_rss_settings.php">Hacker Public Radio RSS feed</a> never releases shows that are sheduled for future release.</p>
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<p>While the <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/rss-future.php">Hacker Public Radio Future Feed</a> only ever serves shows from the Hacker Public Radio web site itself.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://linuxInlaws.eu/inlaws_rss.xml">Linux Inlaws RSS feed</a> contains:</p>
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<pre>
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<enclosure url="http://hackerpublicradio.org/<strong>eps</strong>/hpr3639.mp3" type="audio/mpeg" length="26743003"/>
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</pre>
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<p>While the <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/rss-future.php">Hacker Public Radio Future Feed</a> contains:</p>
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<pre>
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<enclosure url="http://hackerpublicradio.org/<strong>local</strong>/hpr3639.ogg" length="36186529" type="audio/ogg"/>
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</pre>
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<p>Therefore any <a href="https://archive.org/search.php?query=creator%3A%22monochromec%22&sort=-date">download statistics for Linux Inlaws shows</a> that are listed before the Hacker Public Radio day of release can only have come from their feeds.</p>
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<p><a href="11-downloads-of-future-episodes.png"><img src="thumb-11-downloads-of-future-episodes.png" alt="" /></a></p>
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<p>The four "future" shows have 18, 112, 150, and 112 downloads respectively, so an average of around 98 downloads per show.</p>
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<p>So we can say that together with their YouTube subscribers their show has <strong>107</strong> downloads, before the Hacker Public Radio subscribers join the party.</p>
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<p>The Grumpy Old Coders said "about 200 listeners", but with the caveat that that's spread "across all the episodes", so not a per episode count. So it seems to match.</p>
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<p>Is that the final answer?</p>
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<p>Fun Fact. No.</p>
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<p>They do get between 1,269 and 2,240 listeners per show, so many Hacker Public Radio subscribers listen to their episodes.</p>
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<p>A number of them would also subscribe to the Linux Inlaws, but don't because they are published on the Hacker Public Radio podcast.</p>
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<p>On the other hand we don't see these shows getting a consistent 100 more downloads than other shows, so it could be argued that some Hacker Public Radio subscribers do not listen, and so would not subscribe to them.</p>
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<h2 id="pick-a-number-any-number-between-18-and-271-billion.">Pick a number, any number, between 18 and 271 Billion.</h2>
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<p>I still maintain that processing the log files, filtering them, and figuring out what is happening, is a complete waste of time.</p>
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<p>You never get a clear answer, and the numbers can be manipulated to get whatever result you want.</p>
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<p>We don't have advertisers, so we don't need to produce numbers to make advertisers feel better that we are hitting our target download figures.</p>
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<p>In theory hosts may find it valuable to see which show is most popular and focus on those.</p>
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<p>In practice there is so much variability that nothing can be derived from the figures.</p>
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<p>All the information I want to know is not available to be plotted.</p>
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<ul>
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<li>How many people actually listened to the show?</li>
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<li>How many people were helped by it?</li>
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</ul>
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<p>That stuff you can't get from statistics.</p>
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<p>You can only get it when people start leaving feedback.</p>
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<p>Then they turn from listeners into community members.</p>
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<h2 id="summary">Summary</h2>
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<p>In closing I do want to explain that the purpose of this show was not to criticize the Linux Inlaws.</p>
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<p>Far from it.</p>
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<p>It was intended to correct the information provided by them.</p>
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<p>They bring wide and varied content to Hacker Public Radio and it is very welcome, and is popular.</p>
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<p>Their download numbers, and indeed your own if you are a HPR host, are very impressive in their own right.</p>
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<p><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FOSDEM%2712_-_Opening_Talk.jpg"><img src="FOSDEM12_-_Opening_Talk.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
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<p>Each day your show will be heard by as many people as can squeeze into the main auditorium at FOSDEM, or roughly two <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380">Airbus A380-800</a>. You know the big double decker passenger plane.</p>
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<p>Every month we have on average 33,584 downloads. Again to put that into perspective, that's about 40 fully loaded <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380">Airbus A380-800</a>.</p>
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<p>But remember the key take away from this show is who should get credit for hosting our shows.</p>
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<p>Syndicated websites are essentially monetizing Hacker Public Radio content.</p>
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<p>They are not mirroring any of our media.</p>
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<p>And we are all absolutely fine with that.</p>
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<p>That is because our shows are released under a <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license</a>.</p>
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<p>There is absolutely no requirement, or obligation to share the spoils with us.</p>
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<p>Another Key takeaway is that our hosting is entirely free of charge to us.</p>
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<p>These "Podcast Hosting Platforms" actually only host a whopping 65K bytes, while our hosting Provider <a href="https://anhonesthost.com/hosting/shared-hosting">AnHonestHost.com</a> and the volunteer project <a href="https://archive.org/donate/">the Internet Archive</a> donates terabytes of storage to us for free.</p>
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<p>Not just that but they shoulder the huge cost of transferring that data through expensive carrier backbone infrastructure.</p>
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<p>The people to thank are our own <a href="https://hackerpublicradio.org/correspondents.php?hostid=174">Josh Knapp</a> over at <a href="https://anhonesthost.com/hosting/shared-hosting">AnHonestHost.com</a>, who provides the Hacker Public Radio web site.</p>
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<p>And <a href="https://archive.org/donate/">the Internet Archive</a> which is an American digital library with the stated mission of "universal access to all knowledge", who provide hosting for the media.</p>
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<p>Links to how you can support both of those heroes will also be in the show notes.</p>
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<p>That's it.</p>
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<p>Tune in tomorrow for another exciting episode of Hacker Public Radio.</p>
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